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Prediction Market Research
Your AI analyzes prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products and dashboards without giving investment advice. It evaluates market probabilities, liquidity, incentives, and integration patterns for decision intelligence.
affaan-m on GitHub
Curated by PromptsEdge from a public repo · MIT license. All credit goes to the author.
What is this skill?
Use this skill when prediction markets are being considered as a data source, forecasting input, oracle-like signal, or decision-intelligence layer.
Guardrails
- Do not treat market prices as objective truth.
- Do not provide investment advice or trading recommendations.
- Separate venue mechanics, liquidity, incentives, and resolution rules from the implied signal.
- Call out manipulation, thin liquidity, stale markets, and ambiguous outcomes.
- For on-chain or execution-linked systems, run
llm-trading-agent-securitybefore granting any write authority.
Research Workflow
- Define the decision the signal is meant to inform.
- Find relevant markets, events, tags, and venues.
- Record market-implied probabilities with timestamps and source links.
- Evaluate signal quality:
- liquidity
- spread
- market age
- trader/incentive concentration if known
- resolution authority
- geography or account restrictions
- Compare against non-market sources such as filings, news, polls, research, customer data, or internal KPIs.
- Recommend whether the signal is usable, weak, or unsuitable for the stated decision.
Integration Patterns
- Research assistant: source-grounded context for a human analyst.
- Dashboard signal: market-implied probability alongside internal metrics.
- Agent memory input: a time-stamped signal that can be retrieved later.
- Alerting input: notify when probabilities, spreads, or liquidity cross a threshold.
- Scenario planning: compare multiple event outcomes without automating trades.
Output Contract
Use:
- decision context
- market sources
- signal quality
- comparison sources
- integration recommendation
- caveats
End with:
text
Prediction-market signals are informational inputs, not investment advice.
Install this skill
- 1
Get the skill — it’s free
Use the Get this skill panel. Unlocked skills stay in My skills. - 2
Download or clone the files
Download the zip, or clone the repo and copy theskills/prediction-market-oracle-researchfolder. - 3
Put it where your agent looks for skills
For Claude Code, use your personal skills folder (every project) or a project’s own folder:~/.claude/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md # all projects .claude/skills/prediction-market-oracle-research/SKILL.md # this project only
- 4
Just ask
No command needed. The agent reads the skill’s description and loads it on its own when your request matches.
SKILL.md frontmatter
What your agent reads to decide when to load this skill.
--- name: prediction-market-oracle-research description: Research prediction markets as data sources or oracle signals for products, agents, dashboards, and corporate decision intelligence. Use for source-grounded analysis of market-implied probabilities, caveats, and integration patterns without investment advice. Use when evaluating prediction markets as a data source or oracle signal for a product, agent, or dashboard. ---
Files
Open any Markdown file to read it here.
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